Ateinančios žiemos šildymo kainos ir Europos Centrinio banko didinamos palūkanos gąsdina ne vieną. Ar atlikome namų darbus, rengdamiesi priimti Lietuvoje papildomas NATO pajėgas?
TV3 žinių „Dienos komentare“ į šiuo klausimus atsakė ministrė pirmininkė Ingrida Šimonytė.
Europai prognozuojama sunki žiema, bet kai kurie ekonomistai sako, kad Lietuvai ta žema bus lengvesnė. Ar yra pagrindo tokiam optimizmui?
Yra du iššūkiai, kurie susiję su šita žiema. Vienas iššūkis yra gryno tiekimo – fiziškai turėjimo energetinių išteklių, kuriais būtų galima aprūpinti namų ūkius ir kitus subjektus šiluma. Kitas klausimas – kainos.
Faktas, kad tiekimo klausimo Lietuva nuo tada, kai pradėjo eksploatuoti „LNG“ terminalą, praktiškai neturi ir ne tik, kad neturi pati, bet dar gali padėti ir savo kaimyninėms valstybėms. Paradoksaliai, nes kai tas projektas buvo statomas kai kurios kaimyninės valstybės prieštaravo, kad tai būtų regioninis projektas, ir dabar, štai šiomis aplinkybėmis, tai iš tiesų patapo regioniniu projektu ir regionine infrastruktūra.
Tai apsirūpinimo klausimu kažkokių didelių rizikų mes tikrai nematome. Kitas klausimas – kainos. Būtent todėl, kad ta prielaida, kurią turėjome vos prieš porą mėnesių, jog visus metus turėtų išsilaikyti aukšta kaina – 100 dolerių kaina, kuri jau dabar yra gerokai aukštesnė dėl įvairių priežasčių. Dėl to, kad Rusija vėl pradėjo manipuliuoti savo tiekimais ir natūralu, jog rinkos į tai sureagavo, jau ji verčia galvoti ne tik apie tai, ar mums verta naudoti dujas šildymo sezonui, bet taip pat, ar verta laikinai grįžti prie buvusių pamirštų tam tikrų kuro rūšių, ir čia mintyje aš turiu mazutą.
Tokius sprendimus mes esame padarę ir dabar skaičiavimas vyksta. Manau, kad labai tikėtina, jog vieniems metams, ypatingai Vilniaus mieste, kur kogeneracinė elektrinė nebus pradėta eksploatuoti prieš šitą šildymo sezoną, teks laikinai grįžti prie nebenaudotų kuro rūšių tam, kad šildymo sąskaitos būtų mažesnės.
Dėl mazuto kūrenimo Vilniuje problemų nekiltų? Tai yra įmanoma?
Techniškai tai yra įmanoma, žinoma, tai yra susiję su tam tikra papildoma tarša. Tai reiškia, kad reikėtų mokėti tam tikras papildomas įmokas į klimato kainos fondą, tačiau net ir tai įvertinus, ypatingai, jei dujų kainos išsilaiko tokiame aukštame lygyje, kokiame yra dabar, ekonomika yra tokia, kad tą daryti šitą šildymo sezoną tikrai apsimoka.
Ateinančiais metais jau turėtų pradėti veikti kogeneracinė jėgainė.
Sakote, kad apsimoka, ką tai reikštų buitiniams vartotojams?
Tai reikštų, kad šildymo sąskaitos iš esmės galėtų būti išlaikytos praėjusių metų lygyje. Praėjusių metų lygis jau buvo pakankamai aukštas, namų ūkiams reikėjo gerokai daugiau kompensacijų, tačiau tai reikštų, kad papildomų kainų šuolio, kurį lemtų pats dujų brangimas toks, kokį jį dabar matome, mums pavyktų išvengti.
Ką darysite su PVM lengvata šildymui? Ar šiemet jį bus?
Tai priklauso nuo skaičiavimų, kuriuos mes galutinai turėsime dėl šildymo kainų. Aš neatmetu tokios tikimybės, bet jei tas kainas pavyks daugiau ar mažiau išlaikyti tame lygyje, kurį turėjome praėjusiais metais, tada galbūt geriau tas lėšas panaudoti socialiai jautresnių grupių pajamų indeksavimui.
Ekonomistai vis dažniau kalba apie netrukus prasidėsiančią recesiją, ar jūs esate numačiusi, kokių priemonių bus imamasi jos padariniams sušvelninti?
Tai priklausys nuo to, kokia yra recesija ir kokios recesijos šaknys. Negaliu pasakyti, kad šitą scenarijų reikia atmesti. Negalima jo atmesti, nes labai daug priklausys netik nuo to, kaip klostytis padėtis energetikos išteklių rinkoje, kaip atrodys vartojimas, bet taip pat ir nuo to, kaip atrodys „lockdown‘ai“ Kinijoje ir apskritai Kinijos ekonominė padėtis, kuri labai smarkiai prisideda.
Taip pat ir centriniai bankai reaguodami į infliaciją turi pradėti keisti savo pinigų politiką. Tiesiog daug dalykų sutampa blogu metu, bet, aš manau, kad Lietuvos ekonomika apskritai paėmusi yra daug atsparesnė nei buvo prieš keliolika metų, kai buvo ana krizė, kada iš ekonomikos išėjo per tą laiką prisikaupęs oras.
Dabar, manau, kad tų disbalansų mes turime mažai. Labai tikėtina, kad mūsų ekonomikos pagrindiniai partneriai turės problemų, tai tos problemos persikels ir mums, iš esmės per prekybinį kanalą, bet aš dabar nenorėčiau sėti didesnio nerimo, negu kad jo šiaip yra.
Planavimas vyriausybėje, bet kurioje vyriausybėje – šitoje ar kitoje, vyksta pagal tam tikrą centrinį ekonomikos scenarijų. Dar kol kas nei vienas prognozuotojas, įskaitant ir Lietuvos banką, Finansų ministeriją, neturi kaip pagrindinio scenarijaus, scenarijaus, kuris numato recesiją.
Tai benzinas nepigs?
Benzinas turi daug veiksnių, kurie jį veikia. Dabar benzinas šiek tiek atpigęs todėl, kad yra atpigusi nafta. Kiek tai bus ilgalaikis dalykas neaišku, juoba, kad mums nepalanku yra tai, kad atpigo ne tik nafta, bet ir euras.
Tai reiškia, kad kainos doleriais kritimas mums perduoda gerokai mažiau naudos negu perduotų, jei euras būtų stipresnis. Euro atpigimas vėlgi yra natūralus. Jungtinių Amerikos Valstijų centrinis bankas didina palūkanų normas, Europos centrinis bankas, nenorėdamas sukelti didesnių problemų, elgiasi labai atsargiai.
Tai reiškia, kad tos globalios tendencijos, kurios yra, jos Lietuvoje į ekonomiką persikelia ne pilnu mastu, bet, žinoma, jei taip atsitiktų tai natūralu, jog kuro paklausa sumažėtų ir tai sumažintų kuro kainas.
Ar galite pasakyti, kada mes sutvarkysime Zoknių oro uostą?
Dėl tų palapinių tai, man atrodo, kartais žmonės vertina savo požiūriu – kaip jiems atrodo, kad turėtų būti, bet vis dėlto kariškiai vertina savo požiūriu ir savo patogumą gali geriau įsivertinti nei stebėtojai iš šalies.
Daug projektų ir dabar vyksta, ir vyks artimiausius kelerius metus. Tai susiję ne tik su Šiauliais, bet ir su Lietuvos kariuomenės kitais poreikiais. Lygiai su ta pačia brigada, kurios priėmimui turėtų būti pakankamai ženkli infrastruktūros plėtra.
Aš sakyčiau, kad labai daug infrastruktūros Lietuvoje bus sukurta arba atnaujinta iki 2025 metų.
171 comments On Šimonytė apie nerimą dėl ekonomikos: „Tiesiog daug dalykų sutampa blogu metu“
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